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Geopolitics

Geopolitics

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 15?

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 15?

40%

—

—

—

—

$3 Vol.WeeklyEnds Jun 21 3:59 PM ET

Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30?

Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30?

21%

chance

$2k Vol.DailyEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

64%

47%

32%

20%

$308k Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 30 12:00 PM ET

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?

33%

28%

14%

14%

11%

$59k Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 30 12:00 PM ET

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in June 2026?

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in June 2026?

79%

18%

2%

$5k Vol.DailyEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

0%

chance

$8.7M Vol.MonthlyEnds 8:00 PM ET

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

38%

30%

21%

20%

12%

11%

10%

9%

9%

9%

8%

8%

6%

6%

6%

3%

3%

2%

1%

$689k Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?

4%

chance

$81k Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

12%

chance

$8k Vol.MonthlyEnds Dec 30 7:00 PM ET

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

2%

chance

$2.9M Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

Which cities will Russia enter by June 30?

Which cities will Russia enter by June 30?

4%

3%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

0%

$1.3M Vol.AnnualEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

0%

chance

$3.4M Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET