/

Geopolitics

Geopolitics

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 15?

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 15?

38%

—

—

—

—

$3 Vol.WeeklyEnds Jun 21 3:59 PM ET

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

64%

38%

33%

22%

$318k Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 30 12:00 PM ET

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?

33%

27%

17%

15%

13%

$59k Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 30 12:00 PM ET

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

0%

chance

$8.7M Vol.MonthlyEnds 8:00 PM ET

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

37%

28%

21%

20%

19%

12%

11%

10%

9%

9%

9%

8%

6%

6%

6%

4%

3%

3%

3%

$709k Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?

Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?

10%

chance

$92k Vol.DailyEnds Dec 30 7:00 PM ET

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

Oil Sanction Relief

68%

Unfreeze Iranian Assets

50%

Troop Withdrawal

36%

Enrichment of Uranium

9%

Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz

7%

$1.8M Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

16%

3%

1%

0%

$1.3M Vol.DailyEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

Crude Oil all time high by...?

Crude Oil all time high by...?

19%

11%

1%

$529k Vol.DailyEnds Dec 30 7:00 PM ET